Spring Travel Outlook 2025
If you’re feeling a sense of unease about what the upcoming travel season may bring, you’re not alone. Over the past several weeks, I’ve had numerous conversations with destination leaders across the country who are asking the same thing:
"What are you seeing in the data, and what should we be doing right now?"
It’s a fair question. The headlines alone - rising travel costs, economic uncertainty, new tariffs, and geopolitical tensions - can feel overwhelming. At Zartico, we believe this is not a time to panic. It’s a time to lead.
And leadership, especially in moments like this, begins with clarity.
Data As Your Early Warning System
At Zartico, we synthesize geolocation, lodging, spend, and web behavioral data into what we call Essential Intelligence - the kind of insight that helps our partners move from reaction to strategy.
We recently pulled together our Spring & Summer 2025 Outlook to give destination marketers a national view of what’s happening, what it means, and what actions to consider now. Here’s a quick snapshot of the trends I believe are most critical right now.
I also created a video update, you can watch it here.
Five Signals To Watch Closely
1. Lodging Demand Is Pacing Below Last Year
Hotel bookings over the next 12 weeks are pacing 12-16% behind the same period in 2024. While part of this can be attributed to a shift in Easter timing, the more telling signal is the sustained softness we’re seeing week after week - extending into June. This isn’t a blip. It’s an early indicator that demand may be recalibrating, and it’s something destination marketers should watch closely. What happens in the coming weeks could shape expectations not only for summer but for the year ahead.
2. ADR Continues to Climb Despite Demand Softening
Even as booking volume slows, Average Daily Rates (ADR) continue to rise - creating a widening gap between cost and perceived value. This disconnect is increasing pressure on travelers who are already approaching planning with more financial caution. Destinations that can clearly communicate value, offer flexible planning tools, and remove friction from the booking journey will be better positioned to earn trust (and capture demand) in a price-sensitive market.
3. Consumer Confidence Has Dropped Sharply
In February, both the University of Michigan and the Conference Board reported significant declines in consumer confidence, reaching levels more commonly associated with recessionary conditions. This shift in sentiment is already influencing traveler behavior, and we expect to see a continued trend toward shorter planning cycles, more last-minute bookings, and increased sensitivity to price. Destinations should anticipate greater hesitancy and adapt messaging and offers to meet travelers where they are - seeking value, reassurance, and flexibility.
4. Canadian Travel Intent Is Significantly Weakened
Recent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have led to a marked decline in Canadian travel to the United States. In February, automobile trips by Canadians into the U.S. decreased by 23% compared to the previous year. Air bookings have experienced an even more dramatic drop, with a 70% decline in advance bookings for the April to September period. Additionally, organic search traffic from Canada to U.S. Destination Marketing Organization (DMO) websites has fallen by an average of 41% - a trend identified through Zartico’s proprietary website attribution data, which tracks traveler behavior from online interest to in-destination arrival. This downturn is particularly impactful for northern U.S. destinations that traditionally rely heavily on Canadian visitors. However, it also signals broader hesitancy among international travelers, driven by ongoing trade disputes, tariff implementations, and shifting perceptions on traveler safety.
5. Planning Windows Are Tight…and Getting Tighter
Our attribution data shows a median of 135 days from when a traveler first visits your site to when they arrive in destination. That means summer travel decisions are already underway, and if you’re looking to shift strategy, now is the time.
How Destination Marketers Can Respond
Data alone isn’t enough, you need a path forward. Based on what we’re seeing, here are four strategic actions we recommend as you recalibrate your spring and summer marketing plans:
Refocus on High-Efficiency Markets
Efficiency is everything right now. Concentrate on your most reliable drive markets and top-performing feeder cities. These audiences are more familiar with your brand and less likely to be deterred by external volatility.
Shift Toward Lower-Funnel Marketing
Top-of-funnel awareness won't be enough to fill demand gaps. It’s time to move closer to the conversion point.
Regularly Monitor Data Signals
This is no time for a set-it-and-forget-it strategy. The landscape is shifting fast, and so should you. Let data be your compass, make it a habit to review your core metrics weekly or biweekly, and be ruthless about separating signal from noise. Focus on the indicators that truly matter to your outcomes. We’ve found that clients leveraging Zartico’s full suite of intelligence tools didn’t just weather the last three economic disruptions - they outperformed the market by 28%. That’s the power of responsive, data-led decision-making.
Plan for Agility
Prepare your board and stakeholders now for change. It’s not about scaling back, it’s about being ready to pivot messaging, media allocation, or tactics quickly. Agility is the difference between staying ahead of the curve or playing catch-up.
Resilience Is in Our DNA
If the last few years have taught us anything, it’s that this industry doesn’t just bounce back—we evolve. We've weathered disruptions, adapted in real-time, and emerged stronger. As my colleague Sarah Lehman recently put it:
"Leaders today were forged in the fires of unprecedented global disruption. We didn't just survive the pandemic—we emerged as the exact leaders these uncertain times demand."
The road ahead may be uncertain, but you don’t have to navigate it alone. At Zartico, we’re proud to stand beside destination leaders, offering the intelligence and insight to turn uncertainty into opportunity.
Curious how these trends are taking shape in your destination? I’d be happy to walk through the data with you. Let’s make sense of the signals together, and build a strategy that’s as resilient as the communities we serve.
Watch The Full Video
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